EUR/USD

Friday's strong US employment data pulled down the euro by 54 points. In the non-agricultural sector, 379,000 new jobs were created, the January figure was revised upward to 117,000, while unemployment dropped from 6.3% to 6.2%.

Excellent data on the Chinese trade balance for February came out on Sunday: the total balance reached $103 billion against the forecast of $60 billion, exports increased by 60% y/y against the expectation of 39%.

But the data was not welcomed with optimism this morning. At the moment, the price is consolidating in the target range of 1.1915/48, and the Marlin oscillator turned to the upside under the initial conditions of convergence which tells us about the possibility of a deeper upward correction.

Getting the price to settle below the lower border of the channel (1.1882) will extend the decline to the target level of 1.1800 (low on November 23, 2020), from which the probability of a correction will become higher. It will be limited by the lower border of the descending price channel.

On the four-hour chart, the convergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator is formed in the same way. This can be either a real convergence with the price exit above 1.1948, or an apparent one, until it is formed, and the price can continue to decline. From the practical point of view, when making a decision to open a position, it is worth waiting for the end of today and tomorrow.