EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair traded extremely erratically on February 24. It is worth noting that during the day, there were simply no important economic reports and events. Jerome Powell's speech before two congressional committees did not affect the pair's movement. Both speeches were identical, and all of Powell's thoughts have long been known to traders. However, the US currency still rose slightly over the past day, completing a close under the upward trend corridor. Thus, it could be concluded that the mood of traders has changed to "bearish", and the fall of quotes will now continue in the direction of the level of 1.2104. However, the pair very quickly performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2197). Thus, the fall in the pair's quotes yesterday was just a "hike for the footsteps". The European currency began to show growth in the morning, it was traded with an increase this night and did not show by its appearance that it needed any news or events to continue growing. Thus, I would like to draw the attention of traders to the fact that a false signal was formed yesterday, after which the main movement resumed. Although there were no important events that could have caused this behavior of the pair. Traders, meanwhile, continue to wait for a decision by Congress on a new package of assistance to the US economy. By and large, the question now is only the volume of this package. This Friday will be the first vote in the Congress, in its lower house. Most likely, the "rescue plan" will be approved in its original size, since there have been no reports of its change. In any case, tomorrow, it will become clear what the American economy can expect in the near future.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes, after rebounding from the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027) and the formation of a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator, continue the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.2204. The rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of 1.2027. Closing the pair's rate above the level of 1.2204 will work in favor of continuing growth towards the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.2353).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed the second breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor and also false. Therefore, at the moment, the pair still retains the chances of continuing the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496). Closing under the corridor will allow you to count on a long drop in quotes.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On February 24, there were no interesting events in the European Union and the United States, except for the notorious speech of Jerome Powell in Congress.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - change in GDP for the quarter (13:30 GMT).
US - change in the volume of orders for long-term goods (13:30 GMT).
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (13:30 GMT).
On February 25, the calendar of economic events in the European Union is empty, and in America, three fairly important reports will be released at once, the most interesting will be the report on GDP for the fourth quarter.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, the next COT report was released and for the second week in a row, it turns out to be very calm. If a week earlier the "Non-commercial" category of traders increased long contracts and got rid of short contracts, but in small quantities, then in the last week they increased both long and short contracts, but in even smaller quantities. A total of 2,537 long contracts and 1,284 short contracts were opened. Thus, the mood of the major players became only slightly more "bullish". On the other hand, it has not become more "bearish", which means that the prospects for the European currency remain wonderful. In general, during the last reporting week, more short contracts were opened, but we are more interested in the data on the group of speculators.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Sales of the pair are recommended when the quotes rebound from the level of 1.2204 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.2151. New purchases of the pair are recommended when closing above the level of 1.2204 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.2255.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
